Invest Tools · Daily Brief

Invest Daily Brief

2026-09-15· 17 tickers·data: tiingo
Fund value$10,051+0.5% since 2026-08-20
Cash$1,119ready to deploy
Positions$8,93189% deployed
Unrealized P&L$51open positions

Macro overlay

FOMC 今晚(美東週三凌晨 02:00 = 香港週四 02:00)。加息機率各家報價分歧頗大——CME/期貨隱含約 83–87%,但 Kalshi 48%、Polymarket 49%——即係「幾乎肯定」同「擲毫」兩種講法同時存在,反而代表市場對聲明措辭嘅不確定性高過對決定本身。Warsh 一向拒交點陣圖,所以今次冇「指引」可讀,只有聲明字眼。事件扣分維持 −10。週五仲有史上最大三重結算(約 9.6 萬億期權到期)。今日訊號版圖有三個明顯變化:GOOGL 兩星期內由 TRIM(−45)反轉到 +65(MACD 轉正、收復 200 日線後續升 3.2%);NVDA 跌到 RSI3 只有 10,回調入場組件首次啟動,量化 +60;MSTR 升到距 200 日線只差 0.6%,而 mNAV 已回落到 1.08 倍(低於 1.2 門檻)——雙條件其中一個已滿足,另一個一步之遙。

Events: FOMC 今晚(加息機率 48–87%,各家分歧) · 史上最大三重結算 週五 9/18 · MSTR 距 200 日線觸發 0.6%

Today's orders

1 buy order(s) ≈ $211 — candidates, not obligations.

SideTickerQuantityEst. costNote
BUY NVDA 1 股 NVDA $211 整股——任何時段包括夜盤;執行後現金約 $908

Scoreboard

TickerPrice1m12m vs 200DScoreAction
Fund universe — US stocks
AAPL $333.08 +8.9% +42.8% +16.9% +65 BUY
GOOGL $349.39 +1.1% +45.5% +3.8% +55 BUY
NVDA $210.96 -6.2% +18.9% +7.0% +50 BUY
AMZN $253.54 -3.5% +11.1% +5.7% +50 BUY
SPY $760.88 -2.0% +17.0% +6.8% +35 BUY
META $665.60 +12.8% -11.6% +6.9% +35 BUY
QQQ $709.18 -3.0% +21.5% +7.5% +25 HOLD
MSFT $505.41 +2.2% -0.1% +17.6% +20 HOLD
TSLA $358.97 +4.9% -9.3% -10.0% -60 EXIT
Watch only — external accounts
HYPE $80.24 +40.5% +48.6% +44.8% +60 STRONG BUY
SOL $102.03 +36.8% -56.5% +22.5% +30 HOLD
ETH $2,510.57 +33.9% -44.5% +21.7% +30 HOLD
BTC $77,807.19 +23.8% -32.6% +10.8% +30 HOLD
ONDO $0.35 +7.1% -65.9% +7.8% +20 HOLD
MSTR $136.94 +47.2% -58.7% -0.6% -25 HOLD
GLDM $84.73 -2.1% +17.4% -5.5% -45 TRIM
TAO $232.67 +18.9% -32.2% -2.9% -75 EXIT

Ticker analysis

AAPL

$333.08 · as of 2026-09-14 · tiingo
BUY
−100
+100 +65

regime +40 · momentum +20 · pullback +0 · MACD +15 · overlay -10

2503002025-092025-112026-022026-042026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$333.08
vs 200-day avg+16.9%
vs 50-day avg+4.6%
RSI 14 / RSI 363 / 83
MACD+1.62 rising
Return 1m+8.9%
Return 3m+12.5%
Return 12m+42.8%
From 52-week high-2.0%
Volatility (ATR14)+2.3%

量化 +75,MACD +15、12 個月 +43%,再次全場最強。持倉 6 股約 19.8%,兩成上限鎖死,加唔到。RSI3 83 偏熱,就算有現金都唔會喺呢個位加。 — 訊號最強但頂住上限。

HYPE watch only

$80.24 · as of 2026-09-15 · tiingo
STRONG BUY
−100
+100 +60

regime +40 · momentum +20 · pullback +0 · MACD +0

20.0040.0060.0080.002026-012026-022026-042026-062026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$80.24
vs 200-day avg+44.8%
vs 50-day avg+14.9%
RSI 14 / RSI 353 / 53
MACD-1.43 rising
Return 1m+40.5%
Return 3m+9.1%
Return 12m+48.6%
From 52-week high-8.8%
Volatility (ATR14)+5.3%

觀察名單。$80.24,量化 +60,200 日線上 +45%。你嘅 starter 目標區 ~$72 差 10.3%,50 日線 $69.6 差 13%。有貨嘅 trail 不變(~$72 減半、$61.4 硬離場)。分數強唔等於可以喺延伸 45% 開新倉——規則同以前一樣。 — 延伸度高;starter 區未到。

GOOGL

$349.39 · as of 2026-09-14 · tiingo
BUY
−100
+100 +55

regime +40 · momentum +10 · pullback +0 · MACD +15 · overlay -10

2003004002025-092025-112026-022026-042026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$349.39
vs 200-day avg+3.8%
vs 50-day avg+0.8%
RSI 14 / RSI 355 / 84
MACD+0.60 rising
Return 1m+1.1%
Return 3m-5.3%
Return 12m+45.5%
From 52-week high-13.1%
Volatility (ATR14)+2.4%

兩星期完整反轉:9 月 1 日跌穿 200 日線觸發 TRIM(−45)→ 9 月 11 日收復 → 而家 $349.39,200 日線上 3.8%,MACD 轉正 +15,量化 +65。呢個係「TRIM 押後咗冇執行」嘅最終結果:當日冇沽,而家高 5.4%。但要記住結論同上次一樣——救你嘅係『收復就取消』條規則,唔係押後本身。持倉 3 股 GOOG(約 10.4%)。今日唔加:RSI3 84 剛升 3.2%,唔係回調位,而且現金要留俾 NVDA 嗰個真回調。 — 反轉完成但 RSI3 84 唔係入場位;現金配俾 NVDA。

NVDA

$210.96 · as of 2026-09-14 · tiingo
BUY
−100
+100 +50

regime +40 · momentum +10 · pullback +25 · MACD -15 · overlay -10

1502002025-092025-112026-022026-042026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$210.96
vs 200-day avg+7.0%
vs 50-day avg-0.8%
RSI 14 / RSI 344 / 10
MACD-1.21 falling
Return 1m-6.2%
Return 3m-0.6%
Return 12m+18.9%
From 52-week high-10.3%
Volatility (ATR14)+3.3%

量化 +60——回調入場組件首次為 NVDA 啟動(+25,RSI3 得 10,深度超賣),趨勢未破(200 日線上 7.0%)。扣 FOMC −10 = +50 BUY。持倉 7 股平均 $221.85,現價 $210.96(−4.9%);加 1 股($211)平均成本降到約 $220.5,持倉 8 股約佔基金 16.7%,仍低於兩成上限。呢個係系統設計最鍾意嘅形態:上升趨勢入面嘅深度回調。執行後現金約 $908(9%)——要留意基金接近全部投入,呢個係今個月最後一注嘅性質。 — 回調入場首次觸發 + 成本攤薄 + 仍在上限內。

AMZN

$253.54 · as of 2026-09-14 · tiingo
BUY
−100
+100 +50

regime +40 · momentum +20 · pullback +0 · MACD +0 · overlay -10

2002252502752025-092025-112026-022026-042026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$253.54
vs 200-day avg+5.7%
vs 50-day avg-0.8%
RSI 14 / RSI 346 / 40
MACD-1.06 rising
Return 1m-3.5%
Return 3m+3.1%
Return 12m+11.1%
From 52-week high-10.7%
Volatility (ATR14)+2.5%

量化 +60(動量 +20)。持倉 4 股(平均 $259.72,現價 $253.54,−2.4%)。同 NVDA 同級,但 NVDA 有回調入場組件而 AMZN 冇——同分情況下買嗰個有額外證據支持嘅。排下一位。 — 同分但缺回調入場;排 NVDA 之後。

SPY

$760.88 · as of 2026-09-14 · tiingo
BUY
−100
+100 +35

regime +40 · momentum +20 · pullback +0 · MACD -15 · overlay -10

6007002025-092025-112026-022026-042026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$760.88
vs 200-day avg+6.8%
vs 50-day avg+0.3%
RSI 14 / RSI 347 / 40
MACD-1.49 falling
Return 1m-2.0%
Return 3m+1.1%
Return 12m+17.0%
From 52-week high-2.2%
Volatility (ATR14)+0.8%

量化回落到 +45(MACD 轉 −15)。你昨日夜盤 $760.52 買咗 1 股,現價 $760.88——基本打和。唔加:訊號已降級,而且指數倉位已建立。 — 訊號降級;倉位已建。

META

$665.60 · as of 2026-09-14 · tiingo
BUY
−100
+100 +35

regime +40 · momentum -10 · pullback +0 · MACD +15 · overlay -10

6007002025-092025-112026-022026-042026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$665.60
vs 200-day avg+6.9%
vs 50-day avg+10.5%
RSI 14 / RSI 371 / 88
MACD+10.41 rising
Return 1m+12.8%
Return 3m+12.2%
Return 12m-11.6%
From 52-week high-14.4%
Volatility (ATR14)+3.2%

量化 +45,200 日線上 6.9%,但 RSI3 88——一個月由 −60 到 +45 嘅反轉已經走到過熱區。無基金持倉。想開倉:等回踩 200 日線($623)或者等 RSI3 冷卻,唔好喺呢度追。 — 反轉過熱;等回踩。

SOL watch only

$102.03 · as of 2026-09-15 · tiingo
HOLD
−100
+100 +30

regime +40 · momentum -10 · pullback +0 · MACD +0

1001502026-012026-022026-042026-062026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$102.03
vs 200-day avg+22.5%
vs 50-day avg+14.6%
RSI 14 / RSI 357 / 55
MACD-1.09 rising
Return 1m+36.8%
Return 3m+38.9%
Return 12m-56.5%
From 52-week high-58.8%
Volatility (ATR14)+4.2%

觀察名單——重返計數重新開始。9 月 14 日 UTC 收 $102.51,重上 $102:呢個係第一日。要連續兩日先算有效重返,所以今晚 UTC 收市($102 之上?)決定成唔成事。留意上次就係喺呢一步用錯咗 in-progress 數字,今次只用完整收市。條件成立嘅話注碼建議細過前兩次——本月兩次止蝕嘅摩擦成本已經證明咗呢隻喺呢個價區特別反覆。 — 第一日達標;今晚收市決定。

ETH watch only

$2,510.57 · as of 2026-09-15 · tiingo
HOLD
−100
+100 +30

regime +40 · momentum -10 · pullback +0 · MACD +0

2,0003,0002026-012026-022026-042026-062026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$2,510.57
vs 200-day avg+21.7%
vs 50-day avg+13.6%
RSI 14 / RSI 361 / 58
MACD-15.84 rising
Return 1m+33.9%
Return 3m+40.2%
Return 12m-44.5%
From 52-week high-46.4%
Volatility (ATR14)+3.6%

觀察名單。9 月 14 日 UTC 收 $2,515,企穩 $2,416 floor 上 4.1%。你 9 月 13 日 $2,600 減嘅 0.8 隻,買返位已定($2,465 / $2,428 限價),但 A/B 取捨(買返全部 vs 買返一半再撥去 BTC)未決——現價 $2,511 距第一張買單 1.8%,要決定就趁而家。$2,619 減倉位差 4.3%。 — 結構穩固;買返掛單待你決定分佈取捨。

BTC watch only

$77,807.19 · as of 2026-09-15 · tiingo
HOLD
−100
+100 +30

regime +40 · momentum -10 · pullback +0 · MACD +0

60,00080,000100,0002026-012026-022026-042026-062026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$77,807.19
vs 200-day avg+10.8%
vs 50-day avg+8.5%
RSI 14 / RSI 356 / 54
MACD-646.04 rising
Return 1m+23.8%
Return 3m+18.6%
Return 12m-32.6%
From 52-week high-37.6%
Volatility (ATR14)+2.7%

觀察名單。9 月 14 日 UTC 收 $78,180——三星期最高收市,重返 $78.6k shelf 門口。第三級企穩(週收)已於上週日確認。區間第 28 日,兩邊劇本齊備:向上 $82,191 日收觸發突破劇本(拆兩截,資金來自途中成交嘅沽單),向下 $76,500–76,600 接貨、$76,255 殺掣、$72,000 啟動贖回。完整 12 級階梯喺 BTC 卡。 — 三週最高收市;劇本兩邊就緒。

QQQ

$709.18 · as of 2026-09-14 · tiingo
HOLD
−100
+100 +25

regime +40 · momentum +10 · pullback +0 · MACD -15 · overlay -10

6007002025-092025-112026-022026-042026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$709.18
vs 200-day avg+7.5%
vs 50-day avg-0.2%
RSI 14 / RSI 347 / 34
MACD-0.77 falling
Return 1m-3.0%
Return 3m-4.6%
Return 12m+21.5%
From 52-week high-4.9%
Volatility (ATR14)+1.3%

量化 +35(MACD −15)。持倉 3 股約 21%。無動作。 — 訊號降級;持倉不變。

MSFT

$505.41 · as of 2026-09-14 · tiingo
HOLD
−100
+100 +20

regime +40 · momentum -10 · pullback +0 · MACD +0 · overlay -10

4005002025-092025-112026-022026-042026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$505.41
vs 200-day avg+17.6%
vs 50-day avg+11.0%
RSI 14 / RSI 362 / 78
MACD-3.09 rising
Return 1m+2.2%
Return 3m+26.7%
Return 12m-0.1%
From 52-week high-6.0%
Volatility (ATR14)+2.2%

量化 +30,12 個月動量仍 −10(年回報 −0.1%,喺門檻邊緣搖擺)。持倉 1 股 +2.4%。等佢自己轉正。 — 動量組件仍差一步。

ONDO watch only

$0.35 · as of 2026-09-15 · tiingo
HOLD
−100
+100 +20

regime +40 · momentum -20 · pullback +0 · MACD +0

0.200.400.602026-012026-022026-042026-062026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$0.35
vs 200-day avg+7.8%
vs 50-day avg-1.8%
RSI 14 / RSI 348 / 54
MACD-0.00 rising
Return 1m+7.1%
Return 3m-4.3%
Return 12m-65.9%
From 52-week high-67.2%
Volatility (ATR14)+5.9%

觀察名單。$0.3488,200 日線上 7.8%,量化 +20。止蝕不變:UTC 日收穿 $0.33 全走。同 TAO 嘅對比繼續:同一輪板塊回吐,ONDO 守住結構,TAO 冇——呢個就係止蝕線嘅用途,唔使你判斷邊隻會反彈。 — 結構守住;持有不加。

MSTR watch only

$136.94 · as of 2026-09-14 · tiingo
HOLD
−100
+100 -25

regime +0 · momentum -10 · pullback +0 · MACD -15

1002003002025-092025-112026-022026-042026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$136.94
vs 200-day avg-0.6%
vs 50-day avg+27.2%
RSI 14 / RSI 360 / 66
MACD-0.00 falling
Return 1m+47.2%
Return 3m+4.4%
Return 12m-58.7%
From 52-week high-61.9%
Volatility (ATR14)+6.1%

觀察名單——⚠️ 觸發一步之遙。$136.94,200 日線下僅 0.6%(200 日線約 $137.8),量化由 −50 急升到 −25(regime 組件已歸零)。同時 mNAV 已回落到 1.08 倍,低於當日定嘅 1.2 門檻——即係雙條件入面「唔貴」嗰個已經滿足。淨係差日收企穩 200 日線。要你預先決定兩件事,唔好到觸發嗰日先諗:(一)買嘅話用邊個資金池(基金現金只剩約 $908,唔夠;外部戶口?);(二)衛星倉上限 5% 外部組合,而且計入 BTC 風險預算唔算分散。觸發咗我會即時報。 — mNAV 條件已滿足,只差 200 日線;先決定資金池同注碼。

GLDM watch only

$84.73 · as of 2026-09-14 · tiingo
TRIM
−100
+100 -45

regime -40 · momentum +10 · pullback +0 · MACD -15

60801002025-092025-112026-022026-042026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$84.73
vs 200-day avg-5.5%
vs 50-day avg+0.4%
RSI 14 / RSI 344 / 24
MACD-0.68 falling
Return 1m-2.1%
Return 3m-0.9%
Return 12m+17.4%
From 52-week high-20.6%
Volatility (ATR14)+2.0%

觀察名單(金)。再轉弱:$84.73,200 日線下 5.5%(由 −4.0% 擴大),RSI3 24。加息預期 + 債息高企 = 實質利率上升,金持續逆風。禁買鐵律繼續;收市重上 $89.7 先重置。由 8 月 28 日 +60 到而家 −45,係「趨勢規則勝過宏觀故事」嘅完整案例。 — 跌勢延續;禁買不變。

TSLA

$358.97 · as of 2026-09-14 · tiingo
EXIT
−100
+100 -60

regime -40 · momentum -20 · pullback +0 · MACD +0

3004005002025-092025-112026-022026-042026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$358.97
vs 200-day avg-10.0%
vs 50-day avg+1.5%
RSI 14 / RSI 352 / 35
MACD+1.09 falling
Return 1m+4.9%
Return 3m-12.7%
Return 12m-9.3%
From 52-week high-26.7%
Volatility (ATR14)+3.9%

維持 −60,200 日線下 10.0%,12 個月 −9.3%。無基金持倉;外部持倉:全走訊號不變,反彈出貨。 — EXIT 級不變。

TAO watch only

$232.67 · as of 2026-09-15 · tiingo
EXIT
−100
+100 -75

regime -40 · momentum -20 · pullback +0 · MACD -15

2003002026-012026-022026-042026-062026-07 Price50-day avg200-day avg
Close$232.67
vs 200-day avg-2.9%
vs 50-day avg+7.0%
RSI 14 / RSI 351 / 31
MACD-2.53 falling
Return 1m+18.9%
Return 3m-9.6%
Return 12m-32.2%
From 52-week high-53.2%
Volatility (ATR14)+6.4%

觀察名單——離場指令持續。$232.67,200 日線($239.60)下 2.9%,量化維持 −75(動量同 MACD 齊負)。由 9 月 10 日觸發止蝕嗰日 $235 計,已再跌 1.0%。三日收市($232.73 / $231.27 / $232.40)冇一日收復。重入條件不變:UTC 日收企返 $239.60 之上。 — 五日未收復 200 日線;離場指令持續。

Portfolio

What you currently hold. The whole fund is one cash pool. The last column echoes today's suggested action.

TickerSharesAvg costPrice ValueUnrealized P&LToday's action
AAPL 6 $311.02 $333.08 $1,998.48 $132.34 (+7.1%) BUY
AMZN 4 $259.71 $253.54 $1,014.16 $-24.70 (-2.4%) BUY
GOOG 3 $343.76 $349.39 $1,048.17 $16.89 (+1.6%) BUY
MSFT 1 $493.69 $505.41 $505.41 $11.72 (+2.4%) HOLD
NVDA 7 $221.85 $210.96 $1,476.72 $-76.21 (-4.9%) BUY
QQQ 3 $712.03 $709.18 $2,127.54 $-8.56 (-0.4%) HOLD
SPY 1 $761.52 $760.88 $760.88 $-0.64 (-0.1%) BUY

Trade log

DateTickerSideQtyPrice AmountFeeRealized P&LNote
2026-08-20QQQ BUY1.0 $712.80$712.80 $1.00 —STRONG BUY +60; user chose 1 whole share over suggested 0.349
2026-08-21NVDA BUY4.0 $217.64$870.56 $1.00 —STRONG BUY +60 (quant +75, -15 earnings overlay)
2026-08-21QQQ BUY1.0 $712.85$712.85 $1.00 —STRONG BUY +75, second tranche
2026-08-22AAPL BUY3.0 $310.81$932.43 $1.00 —STRONG BUY +60, primary candidate 2026-08-22
2026-08-24AAPL BUY3.0 $310.57$931.71 $1.00 —user fill 2026-08-24
2026-08-24GOOG BUY1.0 $341.14$341.14 $1.00 —user fill 2026-08-24
2026-08-25GOOG BUY1.0 $344.81$344.81 $1.00 —GOOGL score +50, class-swap leg
2026-08-25QQQ BUY1.0 $707.45$707.45 $1.00 —score +45 (quant +60, -15 NVDA earnings/PCE event), pullback entry
2026-08-26GOOG BUY1.0 $342.33$342.33 $1.00 —GOOGL +50/-15 event overlay, class-swap leg
2026-08-26AMZN BUY2.0 $259.93$519.86 $1.00 —score +50/-15 event overlay, first position
2026-08-27MSFT BUY1.0 $492.69$492.69 $1.00 —score +30, first-time qualifier post NVDA-beat
2026-08-31NVDA BUY1.0 $218.43$218.43 $1.00 —score +45 post-earnings digestion entry
2026-09-08AMZN BUY2.0 $258.50$517.00 $1.00 —score +60 動能修復 2026-09-08
2026-09-08NVDA BUY2.0 $230.47$460.94 $1.00 —score +75 全場最高分 2026-09-08
2026-09-14SPY BUY1.0 $760.52$760.52 $1.00 —score +60, FOMC overlay -10 = +50; 七度押後後執行, 夜盤成交

Total realized P&L: $0.00

Past editions: 2026-10-06 · 2026-10-03 · 2026-10-02 · 2026-09-30 · 2026-09-26 · 2026-09-25 · 2026-09-24 · 2026-09-23 · 2026-09-21 · 2026-09-19 · 2026-09-18 · 2026-09-17 · 2026-09-16 · 2026-09-15