BTCETHHYPESOL
Invest Tools · Pulse

BTC $79,140

2026-08-24 20:59 HKT · +1.8% today = 0.7σ (normal)
Cause — (quiet check, no driver) Trend above 200D (+14.5%) Stretch RSI3 89 · RSI14 82
HOLDING IT
WANT IN
SPIKE
UP
TRIM $81–82k
Trim zone is now 4% away — stage the order
At $79.1k: no action yet, but the $81–82k trim zone (May high $82.2k) is only +3.9% away. Stage the sell order for ~20–25% now so strength executes it for you.
WAIT $82.2k
Don't chase into resistance
At $79.1k: no entry — up 1.8% today with resistance 3.9% above and RSI14 at 82. Buy a pullback that holds $78.6k, or a daily close above $82.2k and its first retest.
DROP
DOWN
HOLD $69.1k
Support has ratcheted up under price
At $79.1k: hold. Nearest supports are now $78.6k then $76.3k. The only hard exit stays a daily close below the 200-day at $69.1k.
BUY DIP $76.3k
The entry is still the old support
At $79.1k: wait. A pullback that holds $76.3k, or a ≥2σ flush (~$75k) while above the 200-day, is the entry. Don't pay up 4% under the trim zone.
Hard rule (invalidation): Daily close below the 200-day ($69.1k) = regime flip; all buy plans off.
Base rate: After ≥2σ up-days above the 200D: 5d win 64%, avg +2.2% (n=25) — momentum usually carries; trims are for levels, not for fear of green candles.

Why this call

Evening update to this morning's quiet check. BTC pushed from $77.1k to $79.1k, +1.8% on the day — still only 0.7σ, inside normal volatility, no driver worth classifying.

What changed is the map, not the regime: price cleared the March-2025 shelf, so the nearest support ratchets up to $78.6k with $76.3k behind it, and the $81–82k trim zone is now within one normal day's range. The plan doesn't change — it just gets closer on both sides: holders stage the trim at $81–82k, and the 200-day at $69.1k remains the only regime line.

Up-move base rates warn against fading this: after genuine ≥2σ up-days in this regime, 5-day forward returns win 64% averaging +2.2% (n=25). Strength gets sold at the level, not preemptively.

resistance 82,191support 78,569200-day 69,0932025-122026-022026-032026-052026-07
Move+1.8% = 0.70σ (rank 380/1125 in 3y)
Regimeabove 200D ($69,093, +14.5%)
StretchRSI3 89 · RSI14 82 · −37% vs 52w high
Support$78,569 (−0.7%), then $76,255
Resistance$82,191 (+3.9%, May-2026 high = trim zone)
Daily vol2.6% — trim zone is ~1.5 normal days away

What happened after similar events

Forward returns after same-direction big moves in the same trend regime:

Event sizen+1d win/avg+5d win/avg+20d win/avg
≥2.0σ25 40% / -0.2% 64% / +2.2% 60% / +5.5%
≥2.5σ14 50% / -0.4% 93% / +4.6% 64% / +4.2%

Past cards: 2026-08-24-SOL · 2026-08-24-HYPE · 2026-08-24-ETH · 2026-08-24-BTC · 2026-08-23-SOL · 2026-08-23-HYPE · 2026-08-23-ETH · 2026-08-23-BTC · 2026-08-22-SOL · 2026-08-22-HYPE