2026-08-27 10:16 HKT · −0.4% today = 0.1σ (quiet) — knocking on the Jan-2024 high
Cause — (quiet check; whipsaw resolved by Wednesday's close)Trend above 200D (+24.8%)Stretch RSI3 81 · RSI14 81
HOLDING IT
WANT IN
SPIKE UP
HOLD$102.06
At the Jan-2024 high — let the ratchet decide
At $101.7: no action — price is a hair under the Jan-2024 high $102.06. A daily close above it opens air and ratchets the stop up to ~$99.9/$102; rejection here just pulls back toward $99.9 with the stop at $97.4 untouched. No preemptive trims above a working stop.
WAIT$102.06
Don't buy a 2-year high by a cent
At $101.7: no entry 0.4% under a two-year reference high with RSI14 at 81. A daily close above $102.06 and its retest is the trigger; otherwise wait for the $97.4–99.9 zone to be tested and hold.
DROP DOWN
HOLD$97.4
The stop is back where it was
At $101.7: hold. The re-entry (Wednesday's $102.05 close above $97.4) restored the plan: stop $97.4 close-basis, first support $99.9. A daily close below $97.4 = out again, no debate — the whipsaw already showed why the rule exists.
WAIT$99.9
The pullback entry is the old range top
At $101.7: wait. A dip that holds $99.9 (−1.7%), or deeper $97.4, while closing back above is the entry. Chasing at the high risks the same whipsaw the tranche just paid ~5% to learn about.
Hard rule (invalidation): Daily close below $97.4 = re-entry failed, out again; regime line is the 200-day at $81.5. Base rate: After ≥2σ up-days above the 200D: 1d win 67%, 5d win 57% avg +3.8% (n=21) — momentum tends to carry, which is what the ratcheted stop is for.
Why this call
Quiet check, but the position is anything but boring: SOL sits at $101.65, 0.4% under the Jan-2024 high at $102.06, after the fastest whipsaw this system has recorded — stopped out on Tuesday's $96.59 close, re-entered on Wednesday's $102.05 close per the plan's own re-entry rule.
The whipsaw cost the managed tranche roughly 5% (sold ~$97, back in ~$102). That is the premium the discipline charges, and it is worth stating plainly rather than hiding: the same rule that ate 5% here is the one that prevents riding a real breakdown to $89 or $81. Close-basis rules were followed on both legs; nothing was renegotiated mid-trade.
From here the decision tree is short: a daily close above $102.06 opens post-2024 air and ratchets the stop up; rejection pulls back to $99.9 (the February-2024 swing) with $97.4 as the line. RSI3 at 81 argues against adding into the high.
Move−0.4% = 0.12σ — noise
Regimeabove 200D ($81.45, +24.8%)
StretchRSI3 81 · RSI14 81 · −59% vs 52w high
Support$99.90 (−1.7%), then stop $97.40
Resistance$102.06 (+0.4%, Jan-2024 high — a cent away on Wed's close)
Plan statestopped Tue 96.59, re-entered Wed 102.05; stop 97.4
What happened after similar events
Forward returns after same-direction big moves in the same trend regime: