2026-08-27 10:16 HKT · −0.2% today = 0.1σ (quiet) — breakout reconfirmed on yesterday's close
Cause — (quiet check, no driver)Trend above 200D (+24.0%)Stretch RSI3 72 · RSI14 77
HOLDING IT
WANT IN
SPIKE UP
TRIM$2,619
Target and trim remain the Jan-2024 high
At $2,501: no action. The sell-into-strength level stays $2,619 (+4.7%) — stage the ~20–25% trim there and let strength fill it.
WAIT$2,470+
The confirmed close already came
At $2,501: the plan's entry printed on Wednesday's $2,507 close (back above $2,470 after a one-day wobble). If you took it, you're in with the floor at $2,416; if not, the next add-point is a pullback that holds $2,416–2,470 and closes back above $2,470.
DROP DOWN
HOLD$2,416
The floor has survived two tests
At $2,501: hold. Tuesday dipped under the confirmation band but $2,416 never traded on a close. A daily close below $2,416 = failed breakout, cut back to core; hard regime floor is the 200-day at $2,016.
WAIT$2,416
Below the floor, stand aside
At $2,501: no chase. A retest that HOLDS $2,416 on the close is a second-chance entry; a close below it kills the setup and the next zone is near the 200-day ($2,016–2,100).
Hard rule (invalidation): Daily close below $2,416 = failed breakout, out; regime exit is the 200-day at $2,016. Base rate: After ≥2σ up-days above the 200D: 5d win 58%, avg +3.6% (n=19). The level structure, not the base rate, is carrying this trade.
Why this call
Quiet check after an eventful three days: Monday confirmed the breakout ($2,482 close), Tuesday wobbled back under the $2,470 confirmation ($2,443), and Wednesday resolved it upward ($2,507). The floor at $2,416 never closed through — the thesis was tested twice and held.
Today is flat ($2,501, 0.1σ). The map is unchanged and now well-worn: $2,416 close-basis floor, $2,470 confirmation band, $2,619 Jan-2024 high as both target and trim. At +24% above the 200-day there is no regime question, only the level question.
The lesson of Tuesday's wobble is the same one SOL taught more expensively: close-basis rules mean intraday noise doesn't count — only settlements do.
Move−0.2% = 0.05σ — noise
Regimeabove 200D ($2,016, +24.0%)
StretchRSI3 72 · RSI14 77 · −47% vs 52w high
Support$2,416 (−3.4%, floor; twice-tested, never closed through)
Resistance$2,619 (+4.7%, Jan-2024 high = target/trim)
Plan statebreakout confirmed Mon, reconfirmed Wed; stop $2,416
What happened after similar events
Forward returns after same-direction big moves in the same trend regime: